ADB upgrades Philippine growth outlook

Joy Montgomery
December 15, 2017

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered India's GDP forecast for the current fiscal by 0.3 per cent to 6.7 per cent, attributing it to tepid growth in the first half, demonetisation and transitory challenges of tax sector reforms.

The Asian Development Bank has raised South Korea's growth forecast for next year to three percent, up zero.two percentage point from its previous projection made in September. India's GDP growth outlook was revised down to 6.7 percent in 2017 and 7.3 percent in 2018.

"Developing Asia's growth momentum, supported by recovering exports, demonstrates that openness to trade remains an essential component of inclusive economic development", ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada said in a report, an update of the bank's previous estimates released in September.

Combined growth for the major industrial economies has been revised upward to 2.2 per cent for 2017 and 2 per cent for 2018 due to robust domestic demand in the euro area, and in Japan due to private investment and net exports.

Pernia told BusinessMirror on Wednesday that the ADB's new estimate was expected, given that the economy already posted a 6.7-percent growth in the first three quarters of the year. "Countries can further take advantage of the global recovery by investing in human capital and physical infrastructure that will help sustain growth over the long-term".

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On inflation, ADB said inflation in Malaysia is expected to slow to 2.7 per cent in 2018, unchanged from September, as domestic price pressures subside. The sub-region is benefiting from stronger investments and exports, with accelerating growth for Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

"Going forward, the Thai economy is projected to register growth of 3.4% in 2018, supported by a pickup in public investment that largely offsets weaker investment in the private sector".

Headline inflation settled at 3.3% in the 11 months to November, matching the BSP's full-year forecast and keeping within its 2-4% target band.

Growth in the Pacific is expected to remain at 2.9% in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018 with Papua New Guineathe subregion's largest economycontinuing its gradual recovery due to rebounding mining and agriculture industries.

The government has set 6.5-7.5% and 7-8% targets for this year and for 2018, respectively. Post-disaster reconstruction and tourism are expected to drive growth further in the subregion, particularly in Fiji and Vanuatu. "However, the ADO 2017 projection for 4.8 percent inflation could stand with continued central bank policy vigilance, a muted increase in global oil prices, and some expected easing of global food prices". "Fuel prices also inched up in response to rising global crude oil prices", it said.

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